Greg Battle

The ambiguity of a Tumblr tag.

Don’t forget how you did it the first time David (us old fans won’t).

My whole-hearted congratulations to Davidville & Co.

Spanky Wilson & Quantic Soul - “I’m Thankful (Part 1)” - I’m Thankful. Another funky Monday morning.

Weston and Daddy. at Home – View on Path.

Nap time. at Home – View on Path.

caterpillarcowboy:

gbattle:

A $1billion valuation for Tumblr is about 40-50% of what I would have expected (based upon the last Pinterest raise/val). If sold to Yahoo, I’d want as much cash as possible to mitigate clear risk vs. Facebook where I’d take 20-30% cash as a floor based on Instagram deal. If they are pricing on 10X expected 2013 revenue, that’s the wrong metric - not even in the right neighborhood in my opinion. Just my $.02.

Good point. I think all cash deal is being reported.

The comparison to Pinterest is interesting. I think most people would say that deal was overvalued (2.5B was it?) and it also proves the point that valuations tend to go down when consumer / social companies go from zero revenue to some revenue (ironically).

The decision Tumblr needs to make is how long and how likely is it that they can attain a cash valuation as good as $1B. Probably not a hard decision (sell out now!).

The more interesting question is why the hell would Yahoo pay a Billion for Tumblr? More ad inventory from a key demographic? Do they really know how to retain that audience and monetize it? Are the people (engineers) worth that much? Can you buy cool?

gbattle sez:

I didn’t hear about Yahoo! being a potential all cash deal.  That’s smart.

You have to make the comparison of Tumblr to Pinterest, which in my opinion is Tumblr-lite with two major improvements for their audience:

• value clarity - the “pin” metaphor (pin, pinboard, repin, etc.) is vastly easier to understand than the now antiquated blog metaphor
• narrative structure - each board isn’t infinite, they have a beginning and end
• image curation focus - if 50% of all Tumblr posts are images, and the most popular sections of Tumblr had been fashion blogs for years, Pinterest has streamlined everything toward rotating those users to an even easier platform

From a valuation perspective, with recent reports of Pinterest growth waning, the monthly US uniques for both sites are about the same ~75mm (check Quantcast).  Tumblr’s global uniques is ~3X this while Pinterest remains the mainstay of US flyover state iPad moms (for now - they’re pushing international growth hardcore now, of course - follow the lead dog, then pass). 

That said, there are only so many companies who could stomach a $1 billion acquisition of Tumblr, let alone $2.5 billion.  Despite rumblings of Yahoo! and Facebook, let’s quickly explore 3 others.

Google: “But Greg, they already have Blogger!” - which is precisely my point!  Google is unafraid of eating their not-so-young, especially when they underperform from an ROI perspective (ie. Google Reader). Don’t be surprised of a Tumblr-meets-Google+ union.  Let’s hear it for little blue links, coming to a dashboard new you [… crickets …].

Microsoft: “But Greg, c’mon man, that union would f*$#ing suck!” - given MSFT had considered scooping up Yahoo! a few years ago (in their most confused state I might add), and before that invested $300mm in Facebook, don’t count them out.  Despite whatever you feel, Microsoft are the flat design emancipators.  Anything to anchor aesthetics for them would be positive in my opinion, plus, allowing Bing alone to spider Tumblr’s locked down wave of content would be a winner.

Apple: “Wait, what, who … is this my dream date?” - though the least likely, it’s the best union in my opinion, for many selfish reasons.  Outside of OSX, iOS and hardware, Apple needs help with their software both aesthetically and socially.  The Google-as-media empire threat should be enough for Apple to venture beyond the platform.  The customer love for Tumblr and the Hero’s Journey of David Karp, is reminiscent of a young Apple with Steve Jobs - product obsessed leadership, down to the pixel.

All the likely suitors need this demographic of creators, curators and audience over the next 7 years before the next big thing comes around.  The rotational aspect of networks, be they social, broadcast or whatever, makes this a truism over time.  The question now is, how compressed has the time scale become in a post Facebook world for teens and tweens?

A $1billion valuation for Tumblr is about 40-50% of what I would have expected (based upon the last Pinterest raise/val). If sold to Yahoo, I’d want as much cash as possible to mitigate clear risk vs. Facebook where I’d take 20-30% cash as a floor based on Instagram deal. If they are pricing on 10X expected 2013 revenue, that’s the wrong metric - not even in the right neighborhood in my opinion. Just my $.02.

Hello Fisker.

The Gene Harris Quartet - “Another Star” - Black And Blue. Swinging stevie cover.  “For you, there might be another star, but through my eyes, the light of you is all I see.”

Joe Bonamassa - “Thrill Is Gone” - Live At The Baked Potato.  Digging in deep to channel the King.

Happy Birthday Stevie Wonder.

caterpillarcowboy:

(via The Scientific 7-Minute Workout - NYTimes.com)

gbattle sez:

Check out my timer for this workout.

Shrimp my ride. #gbattle at West Village nyc – View on Path.

Jesse Pinkman “Bitch” compilation and random funny moments from Breaking Bad.

Fascinating real-time map of unregistered Wikipedia editors.

superseventies:

Black Sabbath, ‘Paranoid b/w The Wizard’ - single cover art

Two of my fave Black Sabbath hits on one single!

Jeff Beck - “Superstition” - Beckology.  This tune was originally written for Jeff Beck but Stevie Wonder took it back.  Rumor has it that Stevie gave him “Cause We’ve Ended As Lovers” to make up for the loss.  The rest is history.  I’ll keep the S.Wonder covers coming through his birthday - so many great ones.

Flash flood in Jersey City. at Jersey City – View on Path.

Sergio Mendes and Brasil ‘77 - “Superstition” - The Wonder of Stevie. Believe in this thing that you don’t understand …

Cedar Walton - “Another Star” - The Wonder of Stevie.  Final cut from Bobbito and DJ Spinna’s legal version of their Stevie Wonder compilations built around the annual Wonderful Party (happening May 18th, 2013).  I’m going to only post Stevie Wonder covers until the party.  Only seems right.

Lemon yogurt cake, 2nd attempt. Involved some adult supervision for the icing/plating. We’ll see how the resident food critic feels about it after his nap.